The Future of the Real-Time Web – Part 3

This is the third part of a four part blog post series about the future of the real-time web.

Realtime Communication: Social Networks and the public sphere

There is another area of the web where the trend towards real-time interaction has left its imprint: communication. In the spirit of Jurgen Habermas’ work on the public sphere, social networks and the real-time web help rekindle public debate and discussion. In the past citizens would meet in public places, such as coffee houses and public squares, for discussions, in some cases serving as a counterweight to political authority. Today, the public sphere has expanded well beyond the physical constraints of a singular location and all the limitations that come with it (such as accessibility and time constraints). Public discourse can now take place over the internet, through social networks, and reach a much bigger and more diverse audience. Through the use of technologies such as RSS feeds, chats, and micro blogs like Twitter, user generated textual communication is happening in real-time with users being notified when new messages arrive and able to communicate back instantly. Social networks such as Facebook, StudiVZ, or XING allow their members to use messaging aside from traditional email, to benefit from even quicker return times. And the system works: Facebook is now one of the most visited websites in the world. But this shift to real-time communication via the web also has scientific impact. Sitaram Asur and Bernardo Huberman, two researchers at HP Labs, were astonished to discover through a computer model factoring in two variables (the rate of tweets around the release date of a movie and the number of theaters it’s released in) that they were able to predict opening weekend box office sales with 97.3% accuracy!